South Africa Tables R44-Billion Ngqura Manganese Overhaul as Cape Route Traffic Hits Record

South Africa has put its biggest single port bet on the table. Transnet has opened bids for a private consortium to revamp the manganese export terminal at the Port of Ngqura, in the Eastern Cape, at a cost of up to R44 billion.

The numbers are large. Private bidders must commit a minimum R10 billion. A separate special purpose vehicle, still under the consortium, takes on up to R20 billion in rail rehabilitation to move manganese from the Northern Cape mines more efficiently. Transnet holds 51 per cent. The winning operator runs the terminal for at least 25 years.

Capacity: 12 million tonnes of manganese a year, expandable to 16 million tonnes. South Africa holds roughly 80 per cent of the world's known manganese reserves. The terminal is an attempt to move more of that ore through Ngqura at a moment when the Cape route is carrying more ships than it has in decades.

MarineRadar recorded nearly 2,900 unique devices tracking ships in the Eastern Cape in the past 48 hours. The volume is real. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the extended disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed container ships, tankers and bulk carriers south, around the Cape of Good Hope, at a scale the region has not seen since 1956.

South Africa has not been cashing in on this. An ISS Africa analysis published this week described the situation plainly: record ship traffic through the Cape route, and no equivalent economic gain for Southern African ports. Congestion at Durban and Cape Town is absorbing the volume without converting it into throughput. The Ngqura terminal is a bet that infrastructure investment, not just traffic, turns the moment into lasting revenue.

Two major South African port tenders have now opened within days of each other. South Africa is also seeking a private operator to build an LNG import terminal at the Port of East London, the same coast, a similar structure: Transnet as majority holder, private capital for the build.

Both tenders are a reading of the same moment. The Houthi takeover of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has made the Cape route permanent for many operators, not a diversion but a new default. The question South Africa is trying to answer with R44 billion is whether the infrastructure can be ready before the window closes.