Houthis Complete Bab el-Mandeb Takeover, Driving Cape Route Traffic to Record

Vessel crossings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait fell to 21 on September 17. That was down from 31 just four days earlier, and 28 percent below the 43 transits logged on the same date a year ago.

The drop came after Houthi forces completed their seizure of Yemen's Red Sea coastline. The group had taken Mokha port and Dhubab before capturing Perim Island, also known as Mayyun, which divides the Bab el-Mandeb into two navigable channels. With government forces withdrawing, the position passed to the Houthis. Al Jazeera reported that the seizures gave them control of Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline.

The timing caught Saudi Arabia in a difficult position. Riyadh had already shifted its seaborne crude exports through the Bab el-Mandeb at eight times the previous year's rate, using the strait as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz after Iran closed it during the 2026 conflict. Now that fallback route was under the same bloc's control.

Shipping already bypassing Hormuz began rerouting again. Arab Times Online reported that companies were diverting "significant numbers of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding considerable distance and time to voyages and increasing fuel, freight and insurance costs." Even before Perim Island fell, Bab al-Mandeb capacity in August sat at only 23 percent of its pre-crisis level, double the figure from 12 months earlier but far below normal.

The redirection is sharpest around South Africa. Earlier in September, Houthi forces seized the Greater and Lesser Hanish islands, 160 kilometres north of the Bab el-Mandeb, tightening their grip on the southern Red Sea. Ship traffic off the Eastern Cape has since risen to levels well above the surge that followed the Hormuz closure in September.