Hormuz Shipping Marks Slim Gain as Traffic Crawls Back

Commodity vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz ticked up slightly on Wednesday, with Kpler data tracking 10 visible crossings, up from eight the day before. That puts the figure just short of a ten-day moving average of around fifteen vessels, and nowhere near the hundred-plus ships that once moved through daily before the current disruption.

Among those entering from the Gulf of Oman were two medium-range fuel tankers, an LPG carrier, a Panamax-sized tanker and three handymax vessels. Outbound traffic included a fuel tanker, a bitumen carrier and a bulk carrier. Some vessels are running without transponders, meaning the actual count is probably higher than what the data captures.

The slow climb comes days after the US Navy confirmed it had cleared Iranian mines from the internationally recognised shipping lanes. But the risk picture hasn't shifted sharply. Early Thursday a tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile near Hormuz, sparking a fire that was later put out with no crew hurt, according to UKMTO.

Diplomatic movement is ongoing but slow. Iran and Oman are still working through the details of a waterway-sharing deal, a senior Iranian source said Wednesday, following a statement from the Revolutionary Guards that broad terms had been agreed.

For context, Al Jazeera's analysis of the crisis puts the scale of the damage in stark terms: at its worst, traffic had fallen to just five ships a day, a drop of more than ninety-five percent from pre-crisis levels.

Bab el-Mandeb, the southern Red Sea gateway, also saw fewer crossings Wednesday, with nineteen commodity vessels against twenty-four the day before.

Earlier this week, Iraq's SOMO and QatarEnergy tested the route with spot crude tenders for loading inside the strait, a sign that at least some producers were willing to try loading inside Hormuz despite the risk environment. Whether Wednesday's slight uptick holds will depend on how the Iran-Oman talks conclude and how the broader diplomatic picture develops.