Iran Shifts Hormuz Attack Tactics Before Midterms

Two senior Iranian officials confirmed to Reuters last week that Tehran changed its attack targeting around October 4. The decision came from the highest level of the country's leadership. The stated goals: keep oil prices high and shape the outcome of November's US midterms.

The shift widened both the frequency and geography of attacks. Before October 4, strikes tended to cluster near one or two ships in the outer strait. After it, Iranian forces began hitting more ships per day and pushing into the Gulf of Oman, extending the area US naval assets had to cover.

The week ending October 14 reflected the new tempo: twelve or more ships hit, strait traffic down roughly 70% from pre-crisis levels. Six ships in one day at Hormuz, a war record.

The leadership's calculation, per the officials: high oil prices hurt the US economy in the weeks before polling day and reflect badly on the sitting administration. Iran can sustain the pressure. One official said both goals were explicit. Both said the October 4 order came from the top.

On October 12, Iran rejected calls to reopen Hormuz as two more tankers were hit. Strikes landed within hours. That sequence matched the officials' description of a deliberate, sustained campaign.

The pace had been building for weeks. On October 5, the Lipsi, the sixth tanker struck in a week at Hormuz, was hit. That rate prefigured the wider tactical change confirmed days later.

MarineRadar tracking shows 223 unique devices in the past 24 hours in the Ghalilah area of the northern UAE, near the Hormuz approaches. Activity at that level reflects the maritime sector's close attention to the strait.